Recently Bill Belicheck, the coach of the New England Patriots, shared the following accessment of weather forecasters
"You know as well as I do, it [the weather] could start one way and change during the game. We have to be ready for whatever it is but my experience of going with the forcast in this area 2 days before a game, I mean I'd bet a lot that they're [Weather people] wrong, just based on history because there almost always wrong...Look I am not saying I could do it better than them, I'm just saying they are wrong a lot...that's a fact."
We are big believers in Bill Belicheck and his strategies (personnel, well that is a different story). So for us to continue with any sort of weather forcast for the Mount Washington Valley is probably a silly endevoir given the general perception that it is very hard to predict the weather and the fact that at the top of the valley sits Mount Washington which features the most volatile weather in the world! With that said, we can still report the news!
What we mean by "reporting the news," is rather simple: we will not create any models to view how things will look months from now in terms of temps or precipitation. We will not develop strategies on how to tackle the weather. However, we can look at the trends of the data (via Accuweather.com) and share what we see in the charts. Will the data be accurate making our analysis useful given the volatile nature of New England weather? Perhaps but this will be more of a guidepost for you to follow and a tool in the toolbox when you are considering your ski plans for the day/week.
The plan is to have this analysis at the beginning and middle of each month. We will probably incorporate multiple sources into this but at the moment, we will stick with Accuweather's data for now (been using it for years when incorporating it with energy prices).
Look for the first report next week. In the meantime, we will continue our "Modeling the Mountains" series with the next piece due over thr weekend.